As we all know by now Giants lefty Barry Zito is scorching. After his first ten strikeout performance since July 5th of 2008 it got me thinking, what’s going on? First things first, I will say for the most part the majority of Zito’s components suggest he will come down to Earth, at the same time there’s also reason to expect Zito to have the best season he’s had as a Giant. The only problem about Zito’s performance to date is, the fact that he hasn’t given up a home run. Now this sounds shocking and even absurd but he hasn’t up a home run in 27 innings. The problem with this is Zito averages about .93 home runs per nine innings. Now this isn’t the worst thing in the world but his low era and even fip for that matter (Field independent performance, another tool to try and more accurately determine a pitchers performance) would be much more reliable indicators going forward if Zito had given up at least a home run. The truth of the matter is Zito doesn’t strikeout enough batters to get away with his traditionally high home run rate. It’s not all bad, there are some great things Zito is doing to ensure a successful season. On one hand he is walking only 2.63 batters per nine innings which is absolutely fantastic.
This is well below his career average of 3.7 batters over the same time frame. Is this sustainable? This is a much harder question to answer because Zito’s walk rates tend to fluctuate more than home run rates. And finally the one thing that has been absolutely integral for Zito’s success so far this season is……his line drive rate! The more line drives you give up, the less successful you will be. Zito only has a line drive rate of 13.7 which is well below his career rate of 19.9. This is great, as a pitcher that doesn’t strikeout a ton of batters you want to give your defense a chance to turn balls put into play as outs. Out of any type of ball put into play, groundballs, flyballs, line drives the least likely to result in an out is a line drive. He also has a 43.8 ground ball rate compared to his career average of 37.8, this is great news. There are clearly some great indicators that Zito can take another step forward in his Giants career. Before everyone starts jumping up in down, I must remind everyone this is only 27 innings of baseball were talking about. With that being said, I like what I see out of Zito thus far and it’s reasonable to expect Zito to improve upon his strong 2009 season.